COLUMN-Crop Watch: Rain early Monday buys time for I-state crops before hot, dry weather -Braun

by Karen Brown

NAPERVILLE, Ill., Aug 1 (Reuters) – Monday morning’s rain raised some hopes of crop watch growers on what could be a hot, dry start to the month, even with a permanently dry Preventing yield declines for Indiana corn and soybeans. ,

However, Monday’s rain totals weren’t enough to get all Crop Watch fields through a hot, dry week without another shot of rain, as Crop Watch was the driest week of July in the past seven days.

Fields in southeastern Illinois received 2 inches (51 mm) of rain over the past week, Kansas 1.5 inches and Minnesota 1.1 inches tall, but the remaining eight Crop Watch locations did not receive between two tenths of an inch.

Crop Watch growers in the middle of the Corn Belt, including Iowa, western Illinois and Indiana, reported several mornings of heavy dew last week, helping crops cope with a rain-free week, along with cooler temperatures.

Dew was also reported on Monday morning in South Dakota, where the same phenomenon affected yields during last year’s Northwestern Corn Belt drought.

Monday morning’s rain totals in some Crop Watch locations included 0.75 inches in western Illinois, 0.4 inches in Indiana and southeastern Illinois, 0.3 inches in Minnesota, and a tenth in eastern Iowa. Growers in Indiana and eastern Iowa report that crops could be hit again by the end of the week if some forecasts don’t predict rain.

This is especially the case with warmer temperatures on tap this week, with a focus on the western regions, which may face below average rainfall for the next two weeks. Crop Watch producers are deeply concerned about this forecast as corn and soybean in particular are in their critical yield stages.

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Weather models over the weekend added the possibility of some sporadic rain for dry Corn Belt locations, including Iowa, during the next week, encouraging heavy pressure on Monday morning Chicago futures after last week’s sharp, weather-driven rally.

yield on hold

11 Crop Watch producers have been reporting weekly on their yield potential and crop status. Both are scored on a scale of 1 to 5, with 3 representing average conditions and yield expectations, and 5 expecting excellent health or nearly record yields.

Both yield scores rose slightly this week, although they were not originally considered due to the decline in Indiana. The 11-field, unweighted average corn yield rose to 3.98 from 3.93 last week, and soybeans rose to 3.68 from 3.64 last week.

This was due to smaller soybean yields in South Dakota and southeastern Illinois, as well as half-point reductions in Indiana. The Indiana producer also raised its corn yield by half a point on Monday morning, and both of its yield scores now sit at 3. No other corn yield changes were made.

The average condition score fell slightly over the past week due to drought pressure on crops, and the same was the case in South Dakota, western Iowa and North Dakota. Corn positions fell from 4.11 to 4.07, and soybean positions declined from 3.89 to 3.84, even in southeastern Illinois.

Both of those average position scores are almost identical to the Crop Watch average of the same week from a year ago.

North Dakota’s fields haven’t had meaningful rainfall in nearly a month, which is very damaging to prospects for the re-planted portions of soybeans in late June. The pod set on the original plant is way behind the times in the manufacturer’s view, and North Dakota beans hold the lowest yield rating of any Crop Watch field at 1.5.

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The dry week in Ohio has also stressed the fields there, despite substantial rainfall in the earlier weeks. Ohio’s crops, like North Dakota’s, were planted in very wet soil and the roots are shallow, and the crops are now more sensitive to dry periods.

The following are the states and counties of the 2022 Crop Watch corn and soybean regions: Griggs, North Dakota; Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio.

Crop watch field photos can be tracked on my Twitter feed using the handle @kannbwx.

Karen Braun is a Market Analyst for Reuters. The views expressed above are his own.

Graphic- Crop Watch Producers 2022

(Editing by Matthew Lewis)

(([email protected]; Twitter: @kannbwx))

The views and opinions expressed here are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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