Mutahi Nguni shares mathematical predictions on presidential election results
Mutahi Nguni, a well-known political analyst best known for predicting the results of the 2013 presidential election, shared his mathematical prediction for the August 9 vote on Sunday, July 31.
Nguni predicted that Azimio’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga would win the presidential election with 51.3 percent of the vote, followed by Vice President William Ruto with 45 percent of the popular vote.
The analyst made his prediction based on the assumption that voters would not deviate much from the pattern created in the last six elections. As such, he estimated that Raila would start the election with 44 percent of the vote based on his share of the presidential vote in the last three general elections.
Mutahi Nguni speaking during K24’s Punchline show on March 1, 2020.
“In 2007, Raila got 44 percent of the vote, the same as in 2013 and 2017. A banana tree doesn’t give you bananas today and tomorrow and expect to get oranges the day after.”
The second assumption in Nguni’s analysis was that Ruto would get a head start with 52 percent popularity – if he was able to convince all voters who voted for Uhuru in 2013 and 2017.
“Railla started the race with 6.9 million votes, while Ruto has 8.1 million headstarts.
In addition, the analyst performs a simulation where numbers are analyzed without reference to the Mount Kenya Voting Block.
“Out of Raila’s 6.9 million, 300,000 votes are from the Mount Kenya region, which means he would have 6.6 million votes in this scenario. For Ruto, out of 8.1 million votes, 4.3 million votes are from Mount Kenya, giving him this Will leave with 3.8 million votes in the scenario.
The third level of Nguni’s model is based on the prediction that in the Mount Kenya region – whenever voters are divided – candidates split their share of the vote by 66:33 percent.
“Historically, whenever there are two candidates in the Mount Kenya region or when they are not sure of the way forward, they have given one candidate 66 per cent while the other has received 33 per cent.
“This is confirmed by the recent polls which put the popularity of Ruto in Mount Kenya at 66 per cent. If Ruto gets 66 percent of the 43 lakh votes from the mountain, he will have 70 lakh votes.
The political scientist who coined the Tierney of Numbers said that if Raila got 33 percent of Mount Kenya’s vote (1.4 million), he would get 8 million votes.
Nguni predicted that based on average turnout over the past 30 years, 71 percent (15.6 million) of registered voters would turn out to cast their vote on August 9.
“I studied all six general elections that have taken place since 1992. I did this to come up with a prediction model that allows me to see who is most likely to win the election.
“The end results are simple, Raila will get 8 million votes (51.3), Ruto 7 million (45 percent), while six million votes will go to Wazakoiah (Roots’ presidential candidate).
The veteran columnist noted that his model was 87 percent accurate based on the behavior of voters who voted in the last elections.
However, he added that there is a high probability that if Raila wins with 51.3 per cent of the vote, the election is likely to be challenged and the Supreme Court will likely annul the vote.
“With 51.3 per cent, he would have crossed the 50 per cent plus one vote limit by 200 thousand votes, about 5 votes per polling station and based on 2017 precedent it could be manipulated to cancel.
Azimio La Umoza’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga (left) is his UDA counterpart DP William Ruto in Uhuru Gardens and Makuni County, respectively.
Raila Odinga / DPPS