Potential black swan risks include $200 in oil, monkeypox and a housing accident – Bernberg

Taking a look at the current threats facing financial markets, Bernberg listed $200 worth of oil, an epidemic-level outbreak of monkeypox and a potential housing crash as “black swan” risks, adding that these The events are very unlikely to happen, but would cause huge devastation if they did.

“In the last two to three years, investors have been reeling from unprecedented events,” the firm said in a note issued on Monday. “The world is full of complexity and risk.”

Among other possible black swan incidents, investment banks and research firms also pointed to escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, a geopolitical standoff in the South China Sea, a “lights out” event related to a natural gas shortage in Europe, A general crisis in the Eurozone, corporate fraud, social unrest, institutional disintegration and a food crisis.

Of these, Bernberg said “high activation prospects” have come with the Russia/Ukraine conflict, an energy crisis in Europe, a new pandemic and escalation of tensions in the South China Sea.

Generally speaking, Bernberg said these concerns “are less likely, but should not be overlooked by investors.” Meanwhile, the firm sees a list of six key risks for investors to consider on a day-to-day basis.

As for these core threats, the company structured them as the “Six Ps”, which included policy, politics, values, profit, people, and protectionism.

Specifically, these refer to the monetary policy of central banks as they face an unprecedented economic situation, volatile politics seen in various countries, high prices through inflation, potential declines in corporate profits, and popular opposition. Deterioration in economic conditions as likely and the tendency towards high protectionism that has put globalization “under pressure”.

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